Torrington home values are showing signs of life and over the past 12-16 months have actually increased slightly. The analysis for this comes from several sources and although the data is not 100% favorable with some bumps and blips, the overall trend appears positive. In estimating value and trends several sources were considered, Zillow, Berkshire Hathaway, and individual research from the local MLS by this writer.
Zillow maintains a Home Value Index. This index is based upon approximating an “ideal” home price index which “Instead of actual sale prices on every home, the index is created from estimated sale prices on every home.” This is supposed to eliminate market fluctuations from a market with high end or low end properties dominating sales in a month or quarter.
Berkshire Hathaway provides running totals of median sales prices and there relationship to past quarters based upon MLS data.
In addition, I have analyzed the local MLS for trends in listing prices, sales prices, marketing times and properties on the market. This analysis is what is now required for appraisals in all federally regulated mortgages and is called the Fannie Mae Market Conditions Calculator. Finally I also did a matching pairs analysis of properties that sold within the past year, and have had a prior sale within the past five years.
First lets look at the Zillow numbers. They show that from November 2012 to November 2013 (the most recent reporting period) property values in Torrington increased by 2.4% and a total of 2.9% from the low point of September 2012 to a median price of $140,600. That increase however was earned prior to the last quarter which found values flat with no increase.
The Berkshire Hathaway data is somewhat more limited and just reports the last quarter change. This report shows the median to be $141,400 but that the values actually dipped 2.9% from the previous quarter. Such fluctuations can reflect seasonal differences and it is usually better to compare year to year.
The Fannie Mae Conditions calculator seems to support part of each analysis. It shows the median sales price for the last three months was $139,950. This was down 6.6% from the prior quarter, but still was a 1.6% increase from the prior six months median. This shows an overall slight increase from a year prior although somewhat less then the 2.4% indicated by Zillow.
The matching pairs analysis also seemed to indicate an overall increase. There were 9 resales that did not involve foreclosure sales in either of the two transactions. The difference between sales ranged from 10 to 48 months. There were five sales that declined in value from the previous sale, four of them had at least 40 months between the previous sale and the more current one. Three of the four sales that had increase values were under 33 months. The overall indication is that the more recent sales with a previous sale date closer to the present showed increasing values, while the older ones still suffered from the declining values of the previous market. These comparables supported the values still increasing with a range of 1.5% to 6.6% per year increase.
Overall indications are that the Torrington market is slowly moving upward with some seasonal stumbles in the process. The value increase looks to be below 3% annually and does not show signs of faster increases yet.
